>>> we're joined by our political director and chief white house correspondent chuck todd . so, chuck, if you were a betting man, what happens on tuesday night?
>> reporter: well, there is three things that we don't know. we don't know if we're going to see a higher than normal turnout. if you get that and the casual republican primary voter shows up, that's good for mitt romney . if it is a traditional caucus turnout, a little bit lower than four years ago, a little more conservative, that's good news for rick santorum . and then if there are a lot of independents that show up, and even some democrats, that's good news for ron paul . so the makeup of this turnout is going to determine this right now. and one other wild card , kate, what happens to this rick perry and newt gingrich support. they're sitting in low double digits. do those folks walk into the caucus, leaning perry and gingrich and say, uh-oh, the only other conservative i'm comfortable with to go to, maybe santorum and do they move to him? that would be -- that would be the way you would explain if santorum doubled the support that he currently has in this poll.
>> chuck todd watching it all in iowa, thanks so much.
Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/45842956/
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